11.16.2006

NEW LOW

That is a new low on the VIX as it tries to become a single digit midget. My guess is for a selloff into tomorrow and then it all starts again next week as the Thanksgiving week is typically strong for equities.

It is surprising that stocks aren't doing better in light of the trashing that oil (new low) and oil stocks are getting. The market internals are exactly flat as oil is crushed so maybe a bit overbought here. I will however, go out on a limb and predict the OIH hits 150 before year end as winter brings in some cold days in the northeast. OIH is very volatile as it is now trading at 136+ after hitting the 142 level yesterday.

Back to the VIX, it is down to 10.1 and trading at about 7% below its 10 day SMA and a 5 day RSI near 20. It is going to be hard for it to go much lower even with a big holiday week in front of us but I will go with lower prices tomorrow and then I will figure out next week as I may take a day or two off.

4 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Shark. not that I'm looking to buy this dip in oil and oil service,gas and the like...that was done a few weeks back, and I took it all off, another words I SOLD.

I just would like to know where you think the price near term of OIL and or/ USo is going....BIG se;off in both today.....


Enjoy you blog and thanks for the clear recaps...must read at end of work day! Thanks Again.

5:43 PM  
Blogger DAVID said...

Yes PB stocks are overbought- but they have been overbought since some time in September

8:18 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I've noticed your comments on many blogs PB, and you seem to not want to believe in the fact that the market is rallying. You keep stating how it should 'top' any moment. I don't know and don't care why the market is rallying. It just is.

Markets tend to top/bottom when volatility spikes, NOT necessarily when it is overbought. So far the indices haven't gone berserk. Don't fight the trend.

12:32 AM  
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