2.27.2007

MORE MORE MORE


Not much has changed since the open except markets are a little lower after giving a head fake that just maybe the worst of the day was hit.

The DJIA down 180, SPX down 23 and NAZ down 55. The good news for bubblevision and its various "time for big caps" guests is that they are finally outperforming. Yes, they are doing better than small/mid caps as the OEX/SPX is only down 1.5%/1.6+% vs. the 1.9%/2.2% sell off in the MID/RUT.

Checking sectors, the best of the bad so far include oils, large cap value, drugs, banks and reits while emerging markets, gaming, brokers, airlines, biotechs and homies are acting the worst.

Market internals as ugly as ever with 4,500 net red on the NAZ and NYSE.

The NDX has 3 winners, the OEX with 4 and the SPX with 15.

The TRIN at 4.7 as I type, about as high as I have seen.

Volatility indexes, all up 20% plus and the VXO now stretched 30% above its 10 day SMA. More overbought on a relative basis than I have seen since I started tracking back around 2001.

The 10 year Bond has fallen to the 4.562% area and I bet it won't be long before we get the allocators buying stocks and selling bonds.

The Wall Street Journal blog with this on rate cuts:

"Interest-rate cuts are most assuredly back on the docket after todays news of a slump in new orders of durable goods. As recently as the end of January, federal-funds contracts traded on the Chicago Board of Trade were discounting no change in Federal Reserve policy for all of 2007, but the worm has turned, so to speak.

August contracts traded on the CBOT now put 57% odds on a rate cut to 5% by the Aug. 7 Fed meeting, compared with 37% odds at the close of trading yesterday. The odds for September were already nearly 100% and now they are past that, fully pricing in a rate cut and partially pricing in a second rate cut.

If the demand for goods remains below the economys ability to produce goods and services the only resolution would be for the Fed to lower interest rates, says Tony Crescenzi, chief bond market strategist at Miller Tabak. "

2 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Dude,

VIX is now up almost 40%. Does the 2 day RSI have anything to say about that?

2:24 PM  
Blogger DAVID said...

JB:

The 2 day RSI is a trading system based on probability- The action in the VIX/VXO the same- and its called trading not winning- And if you have a better workable system be my guest to put it up-

3:26 PM  

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