NOVEMBER PUNCHED
Barrons with some interesting stuff this weekend. First, Don Hays, very bullish based on the yield curve and the price/earnings ratio of the SPX over the next 12 months. Don is going with earnings of $103.19 for 2008 and a P/E ratio of 14.34. My take is the earnings probably come in a little light of $100 but still bullish for stocks as the PE will still be under 15 and with the 10 year Bond trading at a PE of 25 - stocks probably the way to go.
Hays also bullish on KO BUCY NVDA BGC and EMC.
Larry McMillan, a long time option maven and market technician sees problems for the SPX at 1,490, and suggests buying puts if the index traded up to 1,485. I have mentioned 1,490 as a major area of resistance but suspect we may power through it on some good news. That level was a recent area of support until we sliced through a few weeks ago.
Anyhow, November is punched and some surprising year to date stuff:
SPX +4.4%
DJIA +7.3%
OEX +4.8%
NAZ +10.2%
NDX +18.9%
RUT -2.5%
MID +7%
Large Value -FLAT
Large Growth +11.5%
Small Value -11.8%
Small Growth +12.2%
SMH -4%
HHH +16.6%
MSH +8.5%
XLK +12.9%
GOOG +50.5%
AAPL +115%
BKX -17.7%
XBD -12.6%
GS +13.7%
BAC -13.6%
C -40.2%
MER -35.6%
LM-19.7%
IAI -5.2%
XLE +25.3%
XTO +31.4%
MGM +50.8%
LVS +26.7%
WYNN+35.3%
HGX-40.4%
RLX -13.1%
TRAN +2.2%
HUI +20.1%
EFA+13.3%
EEM +35.2%
EWA +34.6%
Big Caps:
GE +2.9%
MO +18.2%
MSFT +12.5%
INTC +28.8%
Bottom line, value is lagging pretty far behind growth and small cap growth, the stocks supposedly without the "overseas sales" are beating large cap growth. I guess large cap financials are part of that under achievement although they may be more value than growth at this point.
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