12.02.2007

NOVEMBER PUNCHED


Barrons with some interesting stuff this weekend. First, Don Hays, very bullish based on the yield curve and the price/earnings ratio of the SPX over the next 12 months. Don is going with earnings of $103.19 for 2008 and a P/E ratio of 14.34. My take is the earnings probably come in a little light of $100 but still bullish for stocks as the PE will still be under 15 and with the 10 year Bond trading at a PE of 25 - stocks probably the way to go.


Hays also bullish on KO BUCY NVDA BGC and EMC.


Larry McMillan, a long time option maven and market technician sees problems for the SPX at 1,490, and suggests buying puts if the index traded up to 1,485. I have mentioned 1,490 as a major area of resistance but suspect we may power through it on some good news. That level was a recent area of support until we sliced through a few weeks ago.


Anyhow, November is punched and some surprising year to date stuff:


SPX +4.4%

DJIA +7.3%

OEX +4.8%

NAZ +10.2%

NDX +18.9%

RUT -2.5%

MID +7%


Large Value -FLAT

Large Growth +11.5%

Small Value -11.8%

Small Growth +12.2%


SMH -4%

HHH +16.6%

MSH +8.5%

XLK +12.9%


GOOG +50.5%

AAPL +115%


BKX -17.7%

XBD -12.6%

GS +13.7%

BAC -13.6%

C -40.2%

MER -35.6%

LM-19.7%

IAI -5.2%


XLE +25.3%

XTO +31.4%


MGM +50.8%

LVS +26.7%

WYNN+35.3%


HGX-40.4%

RLX -13.1%

TRAN +2.2%

HUI +20.1%


EFA+13.3%

EEM +35.2%

EWA +34.6%


Big Caps:


GE +2.9%

MO +18.2%

MSFT +12.5%

INTC +28.8%



Bottom line, value is lagging pretty far behind growth and small cap growth, the stocks supposedly without the "overseas sales" are beating large cap growth. I guess large cap financials are part of that under achievement although they may be more value than growth at this point.


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