1.01.2009

OUT WITH THE UGLY IN WITH THE NEW


The year is over thank goodness and a look back at 2008 numbers:


SPX -38.5%


DJIA -34%


NDX -42%


COMPQ -40%


RUT -35%


MID -37%


XBD -63%


BKX -50%


GS -61%


DRG -19.4%


OIH -61%


XLE -40%


HUI -26%


GLD +5%


MSH -45%


AAPL -57%


GOOG -56%


SOX -43%


EFA -43%


Who said what in 2008:


A very powerful and durable rally is in the works. But it may need another couple of days to lift off. Hold the fort and keep the faith!" —Richard Band, editor, Profitable Investing Letter, Mar. 27, 2008;


AIG (AIG) "could have huge gains in the second quarter." —Bijan Moazami, analyst, Friedman, Billings, Ramsey, May 9, 2008;


I think this is a case where Freddie Mac (FRE) and Fannie Mae (FNM) are fundamentally sound. They're not in danger of going under…I think they are in good shape going forward." —Barney Frank (D-Mass.), House Financial Services Committee chairman, July 14, 2008;


"I think Bob Steel's the one guy I trust to turn this bank around, which is why I've told you on weakness to buy Wachovia." —Jim Cramer, CNBC commentator, Mar. 11, 2008;


Two weeks later, Wachovia came within hours of failure as depositors fled. Steel eventually agreed to a takeover by Wells Fargo. Wachovia shares lost half their value from Sept. 15 to Dec. 29;


"Existing-Home Sales to Trend Up in 2008" —Headline of a National Association of Realtors press release, Dec. 9, 2007 ;


"I think you'll see [oil prices at] $150 a barrel by the end of the year" —T. Boone Pickens, June 20, 2008;


In today's regulatory environment, it's virtually impossible to violate rules." —Bernard Madoff, money manager, Oct. 20, 2007;


"There's growing evidence that parts of the debt markets…are coming back to life." —Peter Coy and Mara Der Hovanesian, BusinessWeek, Oct. 1, 2007;


Dick Bove- LEH is a takeover target..... I upgrade to BUY- August 21, 2008 (within 3 weeks the stocks went to $0);


"We had $17 billion of cash" at the end of last year, and "that liquidity cushion has been virtually unchanged."—Bear Stearns CEO Alan Schwartz telling CNBC in a March 12, 2008, interview that he is not aware of any liquidity problems at the firm. Two days later, Bear Stearns, the fifth largest U.S. investment bank, was forced to seek emergency funds from the Federal Reserve and JPMorgan Chase. The firm was taken over by JPMorgan that weekend for $2 a share, which was later raised to $10.


Jon Birger, senior writer, Fortune’s Investors Guide 2008: “Question: What do you call it when an $8 billion asset write-down translates into a $30 billion loss in market cap? Answer: an overreaction … Smart investors should buy [Merrill Lynch] stock before everyone else comes to their senses.


Elaine Garzarelli, president of Garzarelli Capital, in Business Week's Investment Outlook 2008 - “Garzarelli is advising investors to buy some of the most beaten-down stocks, including those of giant financial institutions such as Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, and Merrill Lynch. What would cause her to turn bearish? Not much. ‘Our indicators are extremely bullish.’”What we know now: As of January 1, none of these firms will still exist. Lehman went bankrupt. JPMorgan and Chase bought Bear Stearns in a fire sale. We all know Merrill’s fate;


Sarah Ketterer, CEO of Causeway Capital Management in Fortune’s Investors Guide 2008- Q: “Sarah, where to you see value?” A: “There are [financial firms] that have been tainted by this huge credit problem … Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have been pummeled. Our stress-test analysis indicates those stocks are at bargain basement prices.”


Jon Birger, senior writer, in Fortune’s Investors Guide 2008- “CEO Jeffrey Immelt has been leading a successful makeover at General Electric, though you wouldn't know it from GE’s flaccid stock price. Our bet is that in a stormy market investors will gravitate toward the ultimate blue chip.”


James J. Cramer, contributing editor, in his "Future of Business" column in New York Magazine "Goldman Sachs makes more money than every other brokerage firm in New York combined and finishes the year at $300 a share. Not a prediction — an inevitability.” What we know now: In mid-December, Goldman Sachs’ share price was $78. The firm also announced a $2.2 billion quarterly loss, its first since going public nine years ago.


And how did the always visible Bob Doll do with his 2008 predictions?


The folks in the financial world were not the only ones with shrewd forecasts- check out the political gurus:


Bill Kristol, "Fox News Sunday" -- Dec. 17, 2006
"If [Hillary Clinton] gets a race against John Edwards and Barack Obama, she's going to be the nominee. Gore is the only threat to her ... Barack Obama is not going to beat Hillary Clinton in a single democratic primary. I'll predict that right now."


Peter Mulhern, Real Clear Politics -- Oct. 1, 2007"In this case conventional wisdom is not just wrong but comically so. [Fred] Thompson will win the Republican nomination for two reasons. First, he's a very impressive candidate. Second, there's no realistic alternative. He will win the general election for the same two reasons."


Ann Coulter, "Hannity & Colmes" on Fox News -- Dec. 20, 2007"I think it's probably going to be Romney for the Republicans, Hillary for the Democrats."


Tom Ridge, CNN -- Oct. 28, 2008"I believe we need to prevail in Pennsylvania for John to win. And I think we will … I think John made an excellent choice. I've been with Gov. Palin. I've seen her energize the crowds. I know how the Republican Party and the base feels about her. John wasn't looking for a candidate to help in one state, he was looking for a candidate to help in all 50. I think he found that running mate."


Rush Limbaugh, interview with London Telegraph and on his radio program -- Oct. 31, 2008To London Telegraph: "I think [Obama has] been dead in the water since the primaries. He is going to need to be up 10 to 12 points to win by 3 or 4 … Don't forget that Hillary winning was a foregone conclusion, too. If the polls had been right it would have been Giuliani versus Hillary. That's why polls a year out are worthless."On his radio program: "My gut hadn't been giving me any indication on this race, but it started talking to me last night … Barack is headed back to Iowa. That should be a lock; it’s a dead heat … Florida, Ohio and Nevada look like pretty good McCain certainties here. Obama still has to run ads in California."



Dick MorrisMorris released a book in October 2005 titled "Condi vs. Hillary: The Next Great Presidential Race."


And if you aren't happy with those - check out some of the worst peredictions of all time;


And 10 investments to watch in 2009;


2 Comments:

Blogger rick said...

Great, great post that must have taken a ton of time. Wish I had written it. Actually thinking of buying GLO.

10:16 AM  
Blogger DAVID said...

Thanks

11:27 AM  

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