4.22.2009

CLOSING BITS


Market turned tail in the final hour and gave up all the gains except for the NAZ/NDX which continues to be the strongest area. SPX -6.5, DJIA -85 and NAZ +2.


Strongest sectors- gaming, semis, homies, trannies and telecom while real estate, banks, drugs, utils and brokers lagged.


NYSE- 90 net green;

NAZ- 200 net green;

NDX-60 GREEN;

OEX- 33 GREEN;


VIX- higher by 2% at 37.85;


TRIN 1.5- and down volume about 1.5x the up;


Ugly turn around after a strong morning rally led by big cap tech- which still finished mainly green but not nearly as strong as the AM prices.


SPX areas to watch - the 840 area for support and if we bust under - the next stop is the 825/828 level- and then 805- I doubt we get there but those are levels to watch.


Note the strength in semis with the SMH closing up 2.75%.


AAPL earnings this evening and that should be an interesting tell for sell the news watchers- and its trading down at 4.10 pm.


More fun stuff from Rosie:


According to the IMF, global losses from the credit crisis could hit $4.1 trillion by the end of 2010. Banks will shoulder about 61% of the writedowns with insurers, pension funds, and other nonbanks assuming the rest. The IMF projects losses of $2.7 trillion at US financial institutions. That's up from their $2.2 trillion estimate in January and $1.4 trillion estimate in October. For more, see the Bloomberg News article on this file, "IMF Says Global Losses from Credit Crisis May Hit $4.1 Trillion". Probably doesn't bode well for the fins- eventually.


Retail sales looking very soft again: ShopperTrak reported that year-on-year retail sales plunged 11.5% in the week ending April 18th. We see that another part of consumer discretionary -- media -- is also under downward pressure (U.S. newspaper print advertising plunged 20.6%).


For a look at how the problems in commercial real estate are likely to intensify, look no further than page C1 of today's WSJ, "In Atlanta, Irrational Building Exuberance". Four upscale office buildings are scheduled for completion within a year and none of them have any leasing activity. Another $600 million outdoor shopping mall underway has suspended construction to save money.


Home appliance shipments sink in March: According to the Association of Home Appliance Manufacturers, shipments of major home appliances sank 11.7% YoY in March, with declines in electric ovens and dishwashers leading the way. We would also point out that the outlook for home appliance sales does not look good either. In the Conference Board's latest consumer confidence survey, the segment measuring plans to buy a major appliance within six months dropped to 24 in March from 25.0 in February.


For a look at how the problems in commercial real estate are likely to intensify, look no further than page C1 of today's WSJ, "In Atlanta, Irrational Building Exuberance". Four upscale office buildings are scheduled for completion within a year and none of them have any leasing activity. Another $600 million outdoor shopping mall underway has suspended construction to save money.

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