8.21.2006

NOON LOOK


Markets continue to trade lower with the worst indexes being small caps, SMH and QQQQ.

Internals continue a bearish tilt with over 2,000 more losers than winners with big sector losers being airlines, semis, techs, internets, homies and trannies. Metals and oils are higher although off their best levels.

I was doing a bit of web surfing this morning and found this interesting commentary from Kevin Haggerty at TradingMarkets.com:

"The SPX matched its best week of the year (1/6/06) at +2.9%, bouncing off its 1262.08 low (200-day EMA) on 8/11/06. It was also a key time zone in addition to option expiration. The short-term internals are now very overbought, with the 4 MA's of the volume ratio and breadth at 71 and +1190, with the SPX 5 RSI at 83.65. This is obviously a situation where the "Casino" holds a major edge should you be a buyer. In addition to the internals, last week's average NYSE volume was the lowest since March, with the exception of the two holiday weeks. Rising prices on declining volume is always a red alert. NYSE new highs peaked at 139 on Wednesday and declined the last two days to 115.89, which is also a minor negative divergence. There was significant short covering last week in many technology stocks, especially the semis, with the SMH +8.0% for the week, in addition to the $TRAN, +6.0%. The $COMP closed at 2164, just below its 200-233 day EMA resistance zone at 1274 - 1277. The QQQQ weekly chart was included in the previous commentary and outlined the significant resistance at 40 - 43."

Kevin is a former bigwig at Fidelity and has posted terrific columns in the past at TM and I recommend him highly.

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