SMELLY SOCKS
If the markets are/were rotating to tech why are the SOX/SEMIS not making higher highs with the NAZ/SPX? Just some food for thought as that 200 day SMA looms overhead.
posted by DAVID at
4:45 PM
9.20.2006
If the markets are/were rotating to tech why are the SOX/SEMIS not making higher highs with the NAZ/SPX? Just some food for thought as that 200 day SMA looms overhead.
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3 Comments:
Notice same thing. Just when the party starts to gather a crowd, it's pretty unpopular to notice that there's a leak in the beer keg.
OK if I look at the spydrs (and this is really eyeball level analysis) I see the XLE collapse begining of September. So I take XLE from Sept 1 to yesterday and discover it has dropped about 10%. In the same period XLF has gone up 2.5%, XLK (tech) has gone up 3.1%, and XLY 4.2% that parses out to about 10% (coincidence - probably not). Based on that really quick and dirty analysis I'd have to say that the winner is big screen TVs (technology in XLY) and in second place is "tech" in general and the whole thing is being funded by loans from XLF.
So apparently there could be a rotation into tech not just all at once and maybe very discretely(via consumer discretionary spending).
The fact that there is very little new (only incremental changes) at the base tech level probably explains the fact that the SOX ain't going up as fast as you think it should. After all chips are a dime a dozen (literally) these days.
I would forget tech - we've just gone through a 30-month bull market without it - candidly I stopped waiting for it to happen about 18 months ago and moved on.
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