8.14.2006

THE OTHER GUY


Revshark over at realmoney.com, whose columns I used to enjoy as he was very good with his market calls has become a perma bull in my opinion. If the market is going up, we should be buying strength and when it sells down, we should be buying weakness. Here is a take from his most recent column:

"Once again, early strength invites selling and the bulls suffer another depressing intraday reversal. This is the third such reversal in the last six days of trading and has to be taking a heavy toll on the bulls.

The intriguing thing about this poor action is that when things finally do turn, everyone who is conditioned to sell strength is going to be so badly positioned on the long side that we are going to see some very sharp spikes. Big moves to the upside will come when overconfident shorts are squeezed and the underinvested longs scramble to gain exposure.

I'm not anticipating that we are going to see a turn soon, but I am staying very aware of the growing pressure that exists for very big spikes up as market players continue to lean short. The fact that I am hearing from bears who are talking about how "easy" this market has been is a sure sign that they are going to be taught a lesson in humility by the market beast. "

Of course he could be correct, but for now it looks like a tight trading range and until that changes, that is how I will be playing it.

Also note that Revshark is becoming a mainstream guru as he details a seminar he will be giving at the Waldorf in NYC on August 26. So it goes.

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